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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd